The Global Trading System in Turbulent Times

The event took place at Hill House on the AUC Tahrir Square campus. The talk was conducted in conversation with Ibrahim Awad, co-principal investigator of the Pathways program and professor of practice of global affairs at The American University in Cairo.

In his lecture, Mamdouh traced the evolution of the international trading system over the past three decades, highlighting the growing centrality of services trade, which now accounts for roughly 70 percent of global GDP, and its deep interlinkage with foreign direct investment. He argued that the global economy of today is shaped by complex supply and value chains, making stable and predictable trade rules more critical than ever.

Mamdouh emphasized that recent disruptions, particularly the use of trade measures as political tools, have weakened the predictability and legal certainty that underpin investment and economic planning. While U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump intensified these challenges, he stressed that the roots of the crisis predate that period, stretching back to the post-2008 backlash against globalization.

Turning to Egypt, Mamdouh underlined the country’s strong interest in a rules-based international trading system that supports long-term development, productivity and competitiveness. He highlighted the importance of services—both imported and exported—as essential inputs for agriculture and manufacturing. He also welcomed the recent institutional step in Egypt of linking trade and investment policy under one portfolio.

The seminar concluded with a wide-ranging discussion on the future of global trade governance and how developing countries like Egypt can navigate and shape a changing global economic order.